Given that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the known universe not to mention the galaxies we haven’t observed yet, we can assume that there are trillions and trillions of planets waiting to be explored.
With the technology available today, scientists and astronomers have only managed to find a small group of planets that they believe could harbor extraterrestrial life. However, it is foolish to assume that all extraterrestrial civilizations can be benevolent.
That is why many scientists are concerned about new NASA projects to transmit messages with our location and information about all inhabitants.
So what are the chances that these life forms are malevolent? Well a new study offers us the answer to this question.
4 Dangerous Extraterrestrial Civilizations
A new study is trying to determine how dangerous it really is to try to contact extraterrestrial civilizations.
According to this article there are approximately four “evil alien civilizations” in the Milky Way, and we could probably send 18,000 interstellar messages to different exoplanets in our galaxy and the probability of ensuring our own destruction is the same as if a catastrophic global asteroid hit Earth. Earth.
The article is called “Estimating the Prevalence of Malicious Extraterrestrial Civilizations” and was written by Alberto Caballero, a doctoral student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo, Spain.
He is also the author of another study published in the International Journal of Astrobiology, University of Cambridge, earlier this month that analyzed the origin of the famous WOW! signal.
Caballero says he had to make some assumptions that make it very difficult to know if his calculations are correct.
To carry out the study, he investigated how many external “invasions” occurred on Earth in the last 50 years, that is, countries invading other countries.
He then took that data and applied it to the number of known and estimated exoplanets and potentially habitable exoplanets, based on Italian SETI scientist Claudio Maccone’s estimate that there could be as many as 15,785 civilizations in the Milky Way.
Caballero concludes that the probability of a hostile alien race invading Earth is low, very low.
“The probability of an alien invasion by a civilization whose planet we send a message is therefore about two orders of magnitude less than the probability of an asteroid collision that destroys the planet, which is already a one-time event. 100 million years. ” , writes Caballero.
He also explains that there is probably less than one evil alien civilization in the Milky Way that also dominates interstellar travel which would make them a civilization called “
The doctoral student told the online journal Motherboard that as society becomes more advanced, fewer invasions occur, suggesting to him that alien civilizations capable of destroying Earth would be less interested in doing so as they grow.
“I made the article based solely on life as we know it,” Caballero said.
“We don’t know the minds of aliens. An extraterrestrial civilization might have a brain with a different chemical composition and might lack our empathy or might have more psychopathological behaviors.
“I found this way of doing [the study], which has limitations because we don’t know the mind of what aliens would look like.”
“I think unfortunately it’s still a pretty secretive subject nobody seems willing to talk about it. There’s this fear of being afraid to send messages, but there’s very little research into whether it’s actually dangerous to do so.”
Caballero understands that this isn’t necessarily the most sophisticated science, but he said he hopes his study could start a conversation about whether it’s really risky to send messages into space.
“The fact that the estimated probability of an alien invasion is two orders of magnitude less than that of a planet-destroying asteroid collision should open the door to the next step which is to have an international debate to determine the conditions under the which we wish to produce the first serious interstellar attacks.”
“A radio or laser message will be sent to a nearby potentially habitable exoplanet,” concludes Caballero.